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International student restrictions could cost the US billions
The US economy could lose $7 billion in spending and 60,000 jobs as a result of the bans and restrictions imposed by the White House on international students. That is according to NAFSA, the Association of International Educators. Host Marco Werman speaks with NAFSA’s CEO, Fanta Aw, about the potential impact of visa restrictions.
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Fanta Aw, CEO of NAFSA, the Association of International Educators.Courtesy of Fanta Aw
The US economy could lose $7 billion and 60,000 jobs as a result of visa bans, disruptions and other restrictions imposed on international students and scholars by the Trump administration, according to a new report from NAFSA.
“We arrive at these numbers because we have access to the Student Exchange Visitor Information System, as well as data on visa issuance from the Department of State’s Counselor Affairs,” Fanta Aw, the CEO of NAFSA, the Association of International Educators, told The World. “And so we know the visa issuance rates. We mine the data and, based on the data, work to come up with this analysis.”
Host Marco Werman spoke to Aw, who broke down the economic and cultural values of international students to the US and beyond.
Marco Werman: I’m imagining there are also unquantifiable losses, which, as of our conversation right now, would be hard to ascertain. I’m referring to the brain drain from the US, as foreign students may decide to study elsewhere. And as we know, education in a place often leads to putting down roots in that place. What do you see happening now with students being attracted to other countries to study, and how will that look in the future?
Fanta Aw: Absolutely, and thank you for that question. Because from where we stand, the loss in intellectual capital to this country, that has benefited for decades [from] what I would call the “brain trust” from the rest of the world, cannot be underestimated. And what we know is that international students, because of all of these barriers that have been really erected, and I would say self-inflicted by our government, are looking to other destinations, primarily looking to places like Germany, France, Spain, The Netherlands, the UK, Japan and other places, because they’re unable to be able to make it to the United States.
I would like to revisit the brain drain and offer a historical perspective on it momentarily. But let’s examine some concrete economic effects that are fairly certain to occur. What are some of the key ways that the presence of international students in the US currently affects the economy?
Currently, we know that international students contribute about $44 billion to the US economy, which translates to over 370,000 jobs in the US economy. So, imagine a $7 billion loss and 60,000 jobs. This is not only a [national issue], but also a [state-level] issue; it is a concern for communities where these students often reside, study and work, particularly for small businesses that often benefit from the presence of international students. Those who rent housing to international students, as well as those who purchase goods from them, will have a ripple effect on local communities around the nation.
Data source: NAFSA, Fall 2025 International Student Enrollment Outlook and Economic Impact report.
Data visualization by MariCarmen Mosso.
You have attributed projected economic losses to changes in policy related to student visas and restrictions. What are the specific changes we’re talking about?
The Department of State has introduced additional vetting for international students. And by the way, those additional barriers have been in place for international students only; not for other non-immigrants coming to the US, and specifically, it involves social media vetting. In order to introduce them, visa interviews were suspended starting May 28 and did not resume until mid-July. This has had a chilling effect on students who were in the midst of applying for visas, because June and July, in fact, are the peak seasons. Students are unable to obtain visa interviews in many countries, particularly top-setting countries such as India and China. And those two countries alone constitute 50% of incoming students. With the fall being the peak time for the largest number of international students, this is really the perfect storm for us.
So, Fanta, what countries do you see as likely to send significantly fewer students to the US?
Well, India, China and then countries like Nigeria will also be sending [fewer] students to the US.
And, given those countries, what areas of study and future benefits will be most significantly impacted?
Well, a good number of international students who come to the US are graduate students who are coming for STEM fields. And I don’t have to tell our listeners how critical the STEM fields are to innovation and cutting-edge research, which are absolutely critical to the economy and the US position in the world. Also, the advances that we’ve made in AI to be a top place for innovation are due, specifically, to these international students.
When it comes to the loss of people with knowledge, the brain drain we were discussing earlier, we should recall similar crises in the past, such as the aftermath of 9/11 and the brain drain from Europe in the 1930s. What do those scenarios teach us?
What those scenarios teach us is that, yes, our institutions are incredibly resilient, and that is something we should not underestimate. Similarly, we should have faith in the resilience of our international students. However, with that said, the world has changed. There’s increased competition for these students and, as a result, what will be our loss will be the gain for the rest of the world. But the challenge is that it takes decades to build the infrastructure for research, for cutting-edge work, etc. And so, those countries will not be able to simply make up for the loss in the brain trust that we’re talking about here.
Fanta, your own story is that you came to the US from Mali for your education, rather than going to France, which has been the historical direction for studies for people from former French colonies. And when you studied in Mali, it was under the French educational system. What brought you here to the US specifically?
I think what brought me here is what brought millions of students before me to the US. It has to do with the quality of the education here, the fact that it is very experientially based and also the strength of its liberal arts education. You have world-class institutions. And the diversity of institutions here in the US, I think, is next to none. And that is what drew me here and what has continued to draw students from around the world to the US.
Despite the loss from all these policy changes, could this new environment benefit, in some way, American students? Will we see more Americans getting the opportunity to enter more universities?
I don’t think so, and let me explain why: Because one of the arguments that’s often made, and I think it’s a flawed argument, is that international students have displaced American students. There is absolutely no evidence for that.
One is, as I said, that a good number of the majority of international students are coming at the graduate level. The students who are coming in, and the work they’re doing in universities with research and so forth in the STEM field, even if it were to quadruple the number of American students in the STEM field, it would not make up for the gap in skills that are needed for this country and for the economy.
International students who are coming also subsidize the education of American students, as they do not benefit from any federal aid. In fact, not only are they not taking the spaces of American students, they’re subsidizing American students.
One is, as I said, that a good number of the majority of international students are coming at the graduate level. The students who are coming in, and the work they’re doing in universities with research and so forth in the STEM field, even if it were to quadruple the number of American students in the STEM field, it would not make up for the gap in skills that are needed for this country and for the economy.
International students who are coming also subsidize the education of American students, as they do not benefit from any federal aid. In fact, not only are they not taking the spaces of American students, they’re subsidizing American students.
Is there some silver lining in the idea that international students, possibly American students, may head elsewhere to study and create new academic communities around the world?
Absolutely. Part of our advocacy has always been that international education is not only beneficial for international students coming here, but also incredibly important for American students to experience the world and develop their intercultural competencies. The good news, and that’s the silver lining here, is that we are seeing an increasing number of American students seeking education abroad. However, we need to see many more, as only 10% of the total number of enrolled students in US universities actually go overseas.
Parts of this interview have been edited for length and clarity.
MariCarmen Mosso provided data visualization for this story. MariCarmen is a graduate student at Northeastern University studying Media Innovation and Data Communications. She graduates in December.